Well, we had an election that would make Donald Horowitz proud. Voters rushing to elect the staunchest people from “their” side. For all the talk of bread and butter (or should that be rates and water) politics, no one can seriously say that the massive votes for the DUP and Sinn Fein were based on Peter Robinson initiating a water review, or Gerry Adams promoting unified rates of corporation tax.
Elections in Northern Ireland are different, that much is obvious. For one thing, in other parts of Western Europe its easy to interpret exactly what an election means. An election there is a conclusion to a process. Voters know what the elected parties stand for; all they have to do then is sit back and watch the elected making a haimes of it.
Here, its different. There’s now more speculation following the election than there was before, thanks to the post election deadline imposed by Permatan. Any guessing at this stage is foolish, but given the foolish stuff regularly posted by this blogger, I’m willing to bet that Stormont will be back before long. The dastardy governments will isolate Big Ian and weaken his resolve with temptations, just like happened at St Andrews, and before you can say “tempted by the devil for 40 days in the desert” the Rev will be in his First Minister’s car.
More interesting is the impact of the elections on the parties. The DUP are being touted as the obvious winners, as they got the most seats. Two quick thoughts on this. Firstly, the DUP did a brilliant job of mixing their messages, so its very hard to see if a vote for the DUP was either for or against sharing power with Sinn Fein. This tactic maximised their mandate in this election, but no matter which way they jump now some people somewhere will be left feeling betrayed. The second point is that this may be the last election in which the DUP can stand as the great opposers. If Stormont comes back, they’ll have four ministers and a first minister. They’ll have to deliver, and then run on their record positively rather than opposing their great enemies in Sinn Fein and the Ulster Unionists. Given the possibility too of the departure of the Rev and his personal vote from the scene, it could well be that this election is the high water mark for the party.
The Ulster Unionists were hit badly by a pincer movement. The question is what are they for, apart from laughing at? A succession of boring, grey suited men sounded less than convincing trying to say they’d be happy sharing power with Sinn Fein. Words and appearances were vastly different, and the UUP ended up appealing to very little. If maintaining the union was the most important thing bar everything else, then you voted DUP. Clever Reg underestimated the extent to which this simple question is still the number one issue in Northern Ireland. If you wanted to move forward into a new Northern Ireland within the UK, but with proper local politics, then the confident and vibrant Alliance Party seemed to many a better bet. The road ahead is tough for the UUP now. A radical suggestion would be not to take up their ministerial seats, and steal the DUP’s clothes by becoming a proper opposition party, picking holes in the policies of inexperienced ministers. Should the famed Plan B come into play, then the UUP could also have a flank to attack the DUP on more Dublin interference and higher taxes imposed by direct rule. There is scope for a comeback, but it needs energy, courage and a radical overhaul of a party system still living in the one-party state. The doubts are whether the party is capable of this at all. Surrender to the DUP is still a liklihood.
The Sinn Fein performance can only be described as a triumph. They have a number of unique characteristics that make them a formidable vote-winning machine, including expert vote management and constituency planning, iron discipline from candidates still used to a psuedo-military structure and command, hard working activists on the ground and the island’s foremost political communicator in Gerry Adams. Their steady rise looks to have stronger foundations than the DUP, with more consolidation of their votes. Only in Foyle was their performance perhaps a little disappointing, possibily due to voters being fed up with their top candidates being parachuted elsewhere. A strong showing in the election south of the border could lead to Sinn Fein ministers on both sides of the border. A cross-border body with two Sinn Fein ministers running it? Its not so far-fetched.
The SDLP face similar problems to the UUP, in particular a lack of central control and running too many candidates. The only way out for them now appears to be a link with a party south of the border. Irish Labour would be closer politically, but Fianna Fail would be a smarter move. This would undercut Sinn Fein’s “only all-Ireland” party ticket, and provide energy, experience, expertise and, most importantly, power. The SDLP look like a party in decline, and that will never attract enough voters. A radical overhaul is needed, akin to the British Liberal Party’s long rebirth as the Liberal Democrats, and links with the South appear to be the only way to achieve such a radical transformation.
Finally, the breakthrough of the Alliance would have made even Charles Kennedy raise a glass to his sister party. They looked fresh faced, their focussing on “normal politics” played well with the voters they targeted and in Naomi Long they had the outstanding female candidate in this election, articulate, passionate and an excellent TV communicator. The victory of Anna Lo in South Belfast also gave the party a real sense of identity and difference, that contrasted with the UUP’s attempt at normal politics. They are not far off a ministerial post, and the days of ignoring the “NIO plant” party, constantly cutting them out from major TV debates, may be over.
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